Freight carriers expect immediate sea freight rates on Asia to Nordic routes to hit bottom in October, and freight rates are expected to rise gradually over the remainder of the year as carriers increase empty slots and adjust freight rates to meet early Chinese New Year demand. A global freight agent based in Europe pointed out in an advisory to clients this week that the current drop in trade volumes in Asia and Europe is due to the fact that some factories and shippers expect freight prices to fall further, temporarily postponing shipments, but this will change as demand picks up.
“Demand in November is expected to be strong as flight stoppages will limit throughput, while due to longer transit times in southern Africa, the Chinese New Year peak will arrive earlier,” the consultation report said. The 2025 Lunar New Year is earlier and will start on January 29, earlier than February 10 this year.
The head of the shipping division of a German freight agency also believes that demand has picked up significantly since the beginning of this month as carriers reduce their throughput and freight rates are expected to rise throughout November. Despite Asia and European airlines experiencing a traditional off-season after a golden week, carriers have so far failed to contain the decline in freight prices. However, they are actively using momentum management tools to balance supply in response to market pressures.
According to data from shipping data provider EEsea, as of October, the carrier is expected to carry 271,382 standard boxes on the Eurasian route, accounting for 20% of the available throughput on the route. In comparison, the air traffic rate was 16.5% in September; 15.3% in August; air traffic rate data for November have not yet been released. Data from EEsea also show that the total throughput (including available capacity and idle capacity) in Asia to Northern Europe in October was 135 million standard boxes, an increase of just over 100 million standard boxes compared to the same period last year.
Since this year, the shipping company has continued to introduce a large number of new vessels while maintaining a lower level of idle capacity. According to data from SEA-WEB under Standard Poole Global Business Journal, the total capacity of 14,501 standard cases and above has been delivered to 658,048 standard boxes as of current capacity.
Globally, shipping association BIMCO forecasts freight growth of 3% to 4% in 2024 and 2025, but fleet growth will easily exceed this figure. BIMCO estimates fleet growth of 9.5% in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025.
The move has not put upward pressure on fares after the traditional off-season after the golden week of early October, which is often a slow period after the peak season for Asia European routes, despite the carrier cutting back on Asia's Nordic routes. Immediate shipping rates from Asia to Northern Europe have fallen by more than $5,500 since early July, when shipping rates hit a 2024 high of $8,500 per FEU. The average shipping price this week is $2,900 per FEU, according to data from Platts in Standard & Poor's Global Business Journal.
Several carriers have announced that they will adjust their freight rates (FAK) from November 1 to take into account the growing demand and close the business in a strong position this year. The price increase was led by the Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), which set the rate at $5,000 per FEU; Marsky told customers it would raise rates on November 4, but did not disclose the specific amount. At the same time, HAPAG sets rates at $2,500 per FEU, below current market levels. WEATHER-RELATED PORT CONGESTION MAY HELP CARRIERS PUSH UP FREIGHT RATES, WHICH HAVE ALREADY AFFECTED BOTH PORTS IN ASIA-NORDIC TRADE.
In addition, the recent typhoons “Babinka” and “Prasan” caused boat congestion in Asia, with an average waiting time in Shanghai port of 2.61 days. Severe congestion at Takahashi Pier resulted in delays of up to three days, while the larger Yangshan Deep Water Port faced a wait of up to two days.
