U.S. retailers expect a slight year-on-year increase in imports this month as the shipping peak in 2024 ends. Due to large imports from Asia this summer, most of the holiday goods have entered the US market. A three-day temporary strike by the International Terminal Workers Association (ILA) in the Eastern and Gulf of Mexico regions is not expected to disrupt the overall transportation supply chain ahead of the traditional holiday shopping season, the American Retail Federation (NRF) said Tuesday. Jonathan Gold, NRF's vice president of supply chain and customs policy, said in the organization's latest Global Ports Tracking (GPT) report that the short duration of the strike is a comfort to retailers, consumers and the national economy, saying the affected ports will take several weeks To recover, but rest assured that all ports across the country will do their best to meet demand and the holiday shopping season will not be affected.

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NRF forecasts that retail sales in 2024 (excluding auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants) will grow by 2.5% to 3.5% compared to 2023. According to the latest GPT forecast, U.S. imports in October are expected to grow 3.1% compared to October 2023, and the current forecast shows a year-on-year increase of imports in November of 0.9%, lower than the previous forecast 1.6% increase; December imports are expected to grow 0.2%, well below previously forecast growth in December 2023 1.6%。

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‍Due to early imports this summer, U.S. imports in August reached their highest level since May 2022, in order to deliver time-sensitive holiday goods during Black Friday sales after Thanksgiving, West Coast ports are expected to perform better than those on the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico in October. Founder Ben Hackett said the surge in imports in recent months was clearly the result of urgent imports from wholesalers, retailers and industrial companies due to an expected strike at ports in the east and Gulf of Mexico, rather than a sudden increase in demand. He said there could be some short-term congestion on the West Coast, but there would be no significant impact and delays on the East Coast should be limited. GPT predicts that total imports in 2024 will increase 12.1% compared to 2023, and its first forecast in February showed that as many factories in Asia will be closed for one to two weeks during the 2025 Chinese New Year holiday, imports will also face an 11.2% drop in annual imports.

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